Thursday, January 27, 2011

The Four Phases of Gold

TradingChief wrote about the four phases of gold in 2009 and again in 2010.
This is the unique insight he has on the markets

Phase 1: Banks own all the gold. Peeps buy the gold from the banks in fear that is not justified and Banks make a fortune shorting.
Phase 2: Peeps keep buying gold and squeeze banks.
Phase 3: Banks and governments get together and squash gold to preserve fiat paper. Peeps sell gold.
Phase 4: Banks and Gov now own the gold and they devalue the paper.

In January 2010 he wrote the following:

$1070 has been our make or break point for sometime. However, we also believe that the flush has yet to come. We believe that there will be a concerted effort to push POG holders out of POG and move that gold to central banks again. If people truly believe that gold is to be the next sound currency that all flat currency will yield too, then one has to think that banks have thought of that too.

So does it bother them to flush gold through the trickery they have used for years to $600? I would say no, by then most will be gone and they once again will hold the gold.

Am I assuming that gold will get to $600? No, but I am also not assuming it won't.

We all have conspiracy theories whether its AIG, Government Sachs, Socialism, free markets etc. What amazes me more is the people who follow gold believe that governments will sit back and allow Joe to accumulate without an attempt to get it from him.

I have listened for years how gold has been manipulated and was being held down. Let's suppose that is true. So if gold is coming into its own, it begs the question, why would they not manipulate it again to regain the gold?

We have seen the largest scale "Cash for gold" on TV in the 60 years I have been alive. This was what was needed as Step ONE of getting the gold into a usable form from its unusable form in jewelery etc.

Step TWO was to have those independents melt the gold and sell it to a refiner. The refiner then melts the gold, removes impurities and the bar is hallmarked by the refiner to certify weight and purity.

Step THREE is then to get that gold back from everyone who has now purchased the bar and has it in his/her safety deposit box.

How's that done? One way is to drive up interest rates on flat currency so the person sees the returns on Gold vs flat currency, which makes him want to sell the gold. The other way is to shake him/her out with a huge price decline that will baffle all of the POGists and make no sense, until its over.

I am betting on, and planning for that event. If it does not occur that's fine. But, to assume the master manipulators of flat vs gold currencies have quit or given up the fight is a harder stretch of the imagination then a brutal attack. I await the brutal attack which when finishes brings Step FOUR.

Step FOUR is the time that all POGists have waited for. The only difference was we never spent 15 years of our life talking about the day that POG will fly. We analyzed it and have it now, but its still got one more Step to face before getting there, in our humble opinion.

Step FOUR is the real gold run.

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