Sunday, January 30, 2011

Friday, January 28, 2011

Top Hedge Fund Manager turns to tech microcaps

Stocks mentioned in this article


FSH - Agrimarine - .53
FEB - Functional Tech - .68
PIE - Primary Petroleum - .84
SMB - Simba - .18
UWE - U308 - .93
UAX - Athabasca Uranium.29

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/funds-and-etfs/funds/top-hedge-fund-manager-turns-to-tech-micro-caps/article1884049/

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Ground Control to Major Obama

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2011/01/26/terence-corcoran-ground-control-to-major-obama/

Seasonal Profile for Microvision

http://charts.equityclock.com/microvision-inc-nasdaqmvis-seasonal-chart

From the EquityClock:

Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of March 12 and a sell date of June 13, investors have benefited from a total return of 793.59% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 8 of those periods.
Click the above link for the chart and further details on Seasonal cycles for Microvision - MVIS.

The Four Phases of Gold

TradingChief wrote about the four phases of gold in 2009 and again in 2010.
This is the unique insight he has on the markets

Phase 1: Banks own all the gold. Peeps buy the gold from the banks in fear that is not justified and Banks make a fortune shorting.
Phase 2: Peeps keep buying gold and squeeze banks.
Phase 3: Banks and governments get together and squash gold to preserve fiat paper. Peeps sell gold.
Phase 4: Banks and Gov now own the gold and they devalue the paper.

In January 2010 he wrote the following:

$1070 has been our make or break point for sometime. However, we also believe that the flush has yet to come. We believe that there will be a concerted effort to push POG holders out of POG and move that gold to central banks again. If people truly believe that gold is to be the next sound currency that all flat currency will yield too, then one has to think that banks have thought of that too.

So does it bother them to flush gold through the trickery they have used for years to $600? I would say no, by then most will be gone and they once again will hold the gold.

Am I assuming that gold will get to $600? No, but I am also not assuming it won't.

We all have conspiracy theories whether its AIG, Government Sachs, Socialism, free markets etc. What amazes me more is the people who follow gold believe that governments will sit back and allow Joe to accumulate without an attempt to get it from him.

I have listened for years how gold has been manipulated and was being held down. Let's suppose that is true. So if gold is coming into its own, it begs the question, why would they not manipulate it again to regain the gold?

We have seen the largest scale "Cash for gold" on TV in the 60 years I have been alive. This was what was needed as Step ONE of getting the gold into a usable form from its unusable form in jewelery etc.

Step TWO was to have those independents melt the gold and sell it to a refiner. The refiner then melts the gold, removes impurities and the bar is hallmarked by the refiner to certify weight and purity.

Step THREE is then to get that gold back from everyone who has now purchased the bar and has it in his/her safety deposit box.

How's that done? One way is to drive up interest rates on flat currency so the person sees the returns on Gold vs flat currency, which makes him want to sell the gold. The other way is to shake him/her out with a huge price decline that will baffle all of the POGists and make no sense, until its over.

I am betting on, and planning for that event. If it does not occur that's fine. But, to assume the master manipulators of flat vs gold currencies have quit or given up the fight is a harder stretch of the imagination then a brutal attack. I await the brutal attack which when finishes brings Step FOUR.

Step FOUR is the time that all POGists have waited for. The only difference was we never spent 15 years of our life talking about the day that POG will fly. We analyzed it and have it now, but its still got one more Step to face before getting there, in our humble opinion.

Step FOUR is the real gold run.

Click the link below to follow TradingChief and become a member of our investing community.

TRADINGCHIEF.COM

Don’t touch gold or silver right now!

Don’t touch gold or silver right now!

San Gold 2011 Corporate Video

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Canadian Stock Warrants

Here's a good website for Warrant valuations.

http://canadianwarrants.com/WarrantValues-Current.htm

Going Off the Internet Map - IPV4 - IPV6

This is a must read article! Basically, as of Wednesday next week the web as we know will change.

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/01/26/going-off-the-internet-map/

Gold Oscillator

This is really interesting!

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=26550866

New Gold

http://www.newgold.com
New Gold is an intermediate gold producer with various properties in North America, South America and Australia.
Australia: Peak Mines, in production.
El Morro - Chili: Feasibility study completed, Environmental Permit in progress
Cerro San Pedro - Mexico - in production
Mesquite - California - in Production
New Afton - Canada - Development

From their last quarterly report

Third Quarter Financials

VANCOUVER, Nov. 4 /CNW/ - New Gold Inc. ("New Gold") (TSX and NYSE AMEX:NGD) today announces financial and operational results for the third quarter of 2010. New Gold had an excellent third quarter with gold sales of 89,692 ounces at a total cash cost(1) of $435 per ounce, net of by-product sales, resulting in earnings from mine operations of $46.7 million and cash flow from operations of $35.5 million. New Gold is also pleased to reiterate its 2010 full year guidance of 330,000 to 360,000 ounces of expected gold production at a total cash cost(1) of $445 to $465 per ounce sold, net of by-product sales

12.3 million ounces M&I gold Resources
8.2 million ounces gold Reserves

(see page 9 of their corporation presentation)

Corporate Presentation

Growth and production are increasing, while cash costs per ounce are decreasng.
New Gold closed today at $8.01
With a current book value of $4.66, and revenue growth I feel this one is undervalued.

Industry price ratio of BV is 3.2 times. NGD is currently trading at 1.62 times BV
I come up with a value of $14.91 using 3.2, and $14 using 3 times. Either way, I think it's undervalued.

Of course, we need the price of gold to hold up at these levels in order for the stock to move back up to the high made in 2010. If there's weakness in gold, you may want to consider adding New Gold to your portfolio of precious metal stocks.

Please visit the company website for more information.

NEW GOLD WEBSITE

(Disclosure: I currently hold shares in NGD)

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Stop The Meter on your Internet Use

http://openmedia.ca/meter

Internet Service Providers (ISPs) are about to impose usage-based billing on YOU.


This means we're looking at a future where ISPs will charge per byte, the way they do with smart phones. If we allow this to happen Canadians will have no choice but to pay MUCH more for less Internet. Big Telecom companies are obviously trying to gouge consumers, control the Internet market, and ensure that consumers continue to subscribe to their television services.

These Big Telecom companies are forcing small competing ISPs to adopt the same pricing scheme, so that we have no choice but to pay these punitive fees.

This will crush innovative services, Canada's digital competitiveness, and your wallet.

We urgently need to send a clear message to Ottawa, saying that we won't stand by while some of the most profitable companies in the country indiscriminately add news fees to our Internet bills. Enough is enough.

UPDATE: The CRTC has just made a decision that paves the way for new internet fees to be added to your bill. To stop this we need to raise our voices now more than ever.

Monday, January 24, 2011

Finally, It’s the Fed That Has Become Too Big to Fail — Rick's Picks

Good article by Rick Ackerman

Finally, It’s the Fed That Has Become Too Big to Fail — Rick's Picks

NionCom introduces Tablet with embedded projector

NionCom Announces the Introduction of the MemoryKick™ Vision™ Tablet with an Embedded Projector


http://www.picopros.com/article/nioncom-announces-introduction-memorykick™-vision™-tablet-embedded-projector-0

Movers Today

GGY-V - Goldeye Exploration up on abnormal volume currently at .09 cents
Resistance is .11 and then .13

AAA-V - Allana Potash up 9.5% at $1.02
Resistance at $1.05 then $1.18

NGD-T - New Gold up on heavy volume currently at $7.76
Resistance at $8.00 then 8.35

(as I write this, I see AAA just had news)

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Tech Talk for Friday January 21st 2011 | Timing The Market

Tech Talk for Friday January 21st 2011 Timing The Market

TheStar Carrigan: Don’t mistake a bull market for brains

TheStar Carrigan: Don’t mistake a bull market for brains

Discovery of 100-ounce gold nugget in Sierra Nevada stirs excitement

Discovery of 100-ounce gold nugget in Sierra Nevada stirs excitement
This undated photo provided by Holabird-Kagin Americana, shows a 100-ounce gold nugget found by a man last year on his property near Nevada City, Calif.

By MARTIN GRIFFITH
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Posted: Jan. 9, 2011 | 12:00 a.m.

RENO -- Some 150 years after the forty-niners rushed west in search of riches, a new gold discovery in the Sierra Nevada is stirring excitement.
A 100-ounce nugget, found by a man last year on his property near Nevada City, Calif., is expected to fetch between $225,000 and $400,000 when it goes up for auction March 15 in Sacramento, Calif.
Fred Holabird, a mining geologist whose Reno-based company is one of the country's largest sellers of Western Americana and is handling its sale, thinks it's the largest California gold nugget left in existence.
Virtually all of California's gold fields have been thoroughly combed by miners, he said, and other monster nuggets from the Golden State have been melted into ingots for money.
While bigger nuggets have surfaced in Australia in recent decades, no similar-sized placer nuggets from California have turned up in museums, he added.
The Smithsonian Institution's largest placer nugget from California weighs about 80 ounces.
"The chances of finding something like this anymore are beyond remote. It could be one in a trillion," Holabird said.
The man was using a metal detector in an unmined ancient stream bed near the old Mother Lode mining camp of Washington when he stumbled on the nugget in February 2010.
The Union of Grass Valley, Calif., has identified him as San Francisco businessman Jim Sanders.
The so-called Washington Nugget is thick and oblong, and resembles a "squished loaf of bread," Holabird said, adding it was found in the same area where hydraulic mining was invented in the 19th century.
A lack of records makes it difficult to determine how the nugget compares in size historically, said John Clinkenbeard, senior geologist with the California Geological Survey in Sacramento.
But he said he's unaware of any similar 100-ounce placer nugget being found in California in recent decades.
While current gold prices would make the Washington Nugget worth roughly $130,000, Holabird expects a collector to pay more because of its historical value. Gold closed at $1,368.90 per ounce Friday.
"It's worth more as a collectible," he said. "No one will be melting this thing. It's one of the most important California gold artifacts that exist."

http://www.lvrj.com/news/discovery-of-100-ounce-gold-nugget-in-sierra-nevada-stirs-excitement-113157399.html

Thursday, January 20, 2011

British Humour!

A note to my previous post

Theoretically if the US$ starts dropping again then Price of Gold should rise. So in Canadian dollars we may end up flat on any strength in Gold.

Price of Gold drop

We had a large drop in Price of Gold today, with intraday low of approx. $1344 US
As I write this, it's down 17.50 at $1351 US, and down 14.21 at $1349 C

With the Canadian dollar rising against the US$, POG will go down in terms of the C$.

Scenario #1 
$1.00C = $1.10US, ($1.00US = .90C)

POG = $2000US, with the C$ up against the US$ it would be worth $1800 C$

Scenario #2
$1.00C = .90 US, ($1.00US = $1.10C)

POG = $2000 US, with the C$ down against the US$ it would be worth $2200 C$

We need our dollar to DROP, and the US$ to go back up.
Is this likely to happen? I think the US$ will be strong for a short while, and then continue it's fall. This, is a negative for Canadian Mines.

Just my opinion..would appreciate any comments on this because I always have trouble getting my brain around the exchange rates.

Presidents Obama and Hu; Market Update!

Presidents Obama and Hu; Market Update!

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Wildcat will be at the Cambridge show

Wildcat closes Private Placement

Wildcat Exploration Ltd. Closes Private Placement

2009-10-04 - 16:08:30

WINNIPEG, MANITOBA--(Marketwire - Jan. 12, 2011) - Wildcat Exploration Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:WEL) is pleased to announce that, subject to regulatory approval, it has closed a non-brokered private placement of flow-through units to raise gross proceeds of $450,000.

Each unit, issued at a price of $0.075, consists of one flow through common share of the Company and one-half of one share purchase warrant ("Warrant"). Each Warrant entitles the holder to acquire a non-flow through common share of the Company at a price of $0.11 per share during the 24 month period following closing. Pursuant to the private placement, six million units were issued.
The proceeds of the private placement will be used for the Company's exploration projects including its gold projects in the Rice Lake greenstone belt near Bissett, Manitoba, the Reed base metal and platinum group elements project in the Flin Flon-Snow Lake greenstone belt of Manitoba and the Burntwood nickel project in the Thompson nickel belt in Manitoba.
Commenting on the closing, John Knowles, Wildcat's President and CEO said, "With drill programs under way on our gold projects in the Rice Lake camp in Manitoba, we are pleased with investors' interest in the private placement, which will support work in Manitoba and Ontario in the coming months."
In connection with the private placement the Company paid finders' fees of $10,725 and issued 143,000 finders' warrants, each warrant being exercisable on terms identical to those of the Warrants. All securities distributed pursuant to the private placement are subject to a hold period of four months following closing.
About Wildcat Exploration Ltd.

Wildcat Exploration Ltd. is a Winnipeg-based company exploring for gold and base metals in Canada. Its portfolio includes: (1) several gold projects in the Rice Lake greenstone belt in Manitoba, (2) the McVicar gold property in the Uchi Subprovince of Ontario, (3) the Reed base metal and PGE project in the Flin Flon-Snow Lake greenstone belt in Manitoba, (4) the Burntwood nickel project in the Thompson nickel belt in Manitoba and (5) the Foster zinc-lead-silver project in Saskatchewan. The Company seeks to continuously upgrade its property portfolio through exploration and accretive transactions.

Bad Medicine: The Glaxo Case

Monday, January 17, 2011

Seasonality - TSX Global Gold Index and HUI

The Equity Clock website has just posted a new chart on the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index - Seasonality.

http://charts.equityclock.com/sptsx-global-gold-index-spttgd-seasonal-chart

The best return was with a buy date of July 27, and a sell date of Feb. 22.

They've also just put up a seasonal chart for the Amex Gold Bugs Index - HUI

http://charts.equityclock.com/amex-gold-bugs-index-hui-seasonal-chart-2

Interesting that the buy and sell dates of both indexes are the same.

See the above links for more details and to view the charts.

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Mining Deep to see who will outshine

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/e-zines/investor-all-stars/mining-deeper-to-predict-who-will-outshine/article1797262/

This is a globe article from Nov. 2010, but worth the read.

Of course, it contains some info about my favourite gold stock, San Gold - SGR.T.
Unfortunately this one has underperformed the general gold index, but does that mean it will finally outshine in 2011??

Technically, major support is at $3.00, so that's your stop loss. Resistance is 3.75, 4.10 then 4.75. All time high was $5 on an intraday move up. Keep an eye on POG, as it's certainly been weak. There could be continued downside in gold, and if SGR breaks below $3.00 then next support would be 2.75 - 2.50.

Putting the Hammer to high frequency traders

From the Globe and Mail, January 15, 2011.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/putting-the-hammer-to-high-frequency-traders/article1871294/

Seasonality

Seasonality

This is a great list to use for quick reference.

Major Indices, Primary Sectors, and Secondary Sectors are shown.

Gold Seasonality

According to the Equity Clock website, gold futures contract has seasonal strength from September - May.

With a buy date of September 13 and a sell date of May 23, investors have benefited from a total return of 183.61% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 9 of those periods.
Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of September 16 and a sell date of May 20, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 159.82% with positive results in 10 of those periods.

http://charts.equityclock.com/gold-futures-gc-seasonal-chart

I've requested seasonal charts for the TSE Global Gold Index and will post if they supply it.

When I look at the chart they provided it looks to me like there's weakness from mid-February through till mid-April. Will update this if I can get further info from them.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Inside Job

Even though many of us have followed this story, and know most of it, this looks like a must see movie!

Friday, January 14, 2011

Seasonality Website

This will be a useful tool to chart sectors and individual stocks by seasonality.

http://charts.equityclock.com/

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Interesting Extraction process

I found this to be very interesting, and wasn't aware of this extraction process.
Quote from press release:

Nichromet Extraction has developed a new technology using halogens for gold extraction at atmospheric pressure. This process has been successfully piloted and has shown a fast recovery exceeding 95% with no liquid or gaseous emission and no need for tailings treatment or disposal sites. The Nichromet system is an environmentally friendly process as it is a closed loop system using a salt solution. Therefore, the tailings from the Nichromet process will be devoid of any significant content of base metals which can generate toxic lixiviates.

Metanor Preliminary Discussions With Nichromet Barry Could Achieve Onsite Production Faster


Symbol: MTO

VAL-D'OR, QUEBEC--(Marketwire - Jan. 13, 2011) - Metanor Resources Inc. ("Metanor") (TSX VENTURE:MTO) is pleased to announce that the 20 kilos of ore sample from the Barry Property submitted to Nichromet Extraction Inc.("Nichromet") in order to test the Barry mineralization for eligibility for treatment with Nichromet technology has met the required specifications. A further 100 kilos of representative ore material from Barry is being analyzed in order to apply the Knelson concentration process in an industrial way.

The conclusion is that Nichromet cannot give Metanor a precise result until the further 100 kilos have been analyzed but it is very clear to them that the operation with this ore, starting with a concentration stage, followed by a controlled oxidation stage and finally a chloridation step, would be efficient. A final report with more precise information will be done as soon as Nichromet has more data.

Further meetings are scheduled in mid-January at Nichromet's Thetford Mines pilot plant, at which time more discussions will take place on the structure of an eventual business relationship between Metanor and Nichromet Extration Inc., which could eventually lead to the construction of a Nichromet plant on the Barry property in the near future to achieve mid-tier status sooner.

Nichromet Extraction has developed a new technology using halogens for gold extraction at atmospheric pressure. This process has been successfully piloted and has shown a fast recovery exceeding 95% with no liquid or gaseous emission and no need for tailings treatment or disposal sites. The Nichromet system is an environmentally friendly process as it is a closed loop system using a salt solution. Therefore, the tailings from the Nichromet process will be devoid of any significant content of base metals which can generate toxic lixiviates. The Company has been recently awarded patents for its sulfide process in the United States of America. The issue of patents by the US Government is a strong endorsement of the originality of the Nichromet process both from a chemistry standpoint as well as an economic standpoint: the process can recover precious metals in a three-hour cycle as opposed to a 40-hour cycle for cyanide. Patents for its sulfide process have also been issued in Cuba, Guatemala, and Peru. Patents are pending in Chile, Mexico, Canada, Indonesia, Philippines, and the Dominican Republic.
About Metanor
Metanor is a Canadian based gold mining company with a focus on adding value per share through efficient exploration, and development of it properties. Maintaining a low risk profile through a strong operating team, sound financial management, and operating in secure jurisdictions like Quebec are key priorities for Metanor's management team.

About Nichromet Extraction Inc.
Nichromet Extraction Inc. has developed proprietary metallurgical processes for the extraction of base metals and precious metals. The Nichromet system is an environmentally friendly process as it is a closed loop system using a salt solution. Therefore, the tailings will be devoid of any significant content of base metals which can generate toxic lixiviates. Major shareholders include Dundee Precious Metals Inc., Northbrock Capital Inc., Seed Capital Inc. and Credit Suisse.

Qualified Person

Pascal Hamelin, P. Eng, Ing, General Manager of Operations, is the Qualified Person under NI 43-101 responsible for reviewing and approving the technical information contained in this news release.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Sprott vs. Cormark

I made a post earlier that Cormark was buying FNC, which they did. I originally thought that Cormark was Sprott Securities, but it seems after a bit of reading I'm mistaken.

In 1981, Eric Sprott, CA, founded Sprott Securities Ltd. (now Cormark Securities Inc.), an institutional brokerage firm focused on small-to-mid capitalization companies, servicing Canadian corporate and institutional investors.
In the year 2000, Eric Sprott made the decision to focus solely on the investment management business. Accordingly, the “investment management division” of Sprott Securities Inc. (now Cormark Securities Inc.), was spun-off to form a separate entity now known as Sprott Asset Management LP. Consequently, SAM was founded with an already established successful historical track record of managing assets through Sprott Managed Accounts since 1981 and the Sprott Canadian Equity Fund since 1997. Sprott Securities Inc. was sold to its employees in 2002, leaving Eric Sprott and the directors and officers of SAM with no remaining interest in the firm.

http://www.sprott.com/main3.aspx?id=2

Originally they were Sprott Securities. Eric Sprott spun off the management division, now called Sprott Asset Management, and in 2002 they sold Sprott Securities to its employees.

Fancamp - moving today

Fancamp moved today on heavy, abnormal volume. As I write this, it's currently at .53, up .15% on 5.6 mil shares traded.

The company has numerous properties in Canada.

Fancamp is currently drilling in McFauld's lake. From the PR Nov 2010.

Fancamp Exploration Ltd. (TSX Venture Exchange - FNC): Fancamp Exploration Ltd., (“the Company”) wishes to report that drilling has begun on its 100% owned McFaulds Lake property. The 3,000 metre program is starting on the C2 VMS target and will be followed by deep drilling on the C1 Ni PGM target, which the company believes hosts Eagle 1 type massive sulphides at depth. This drill program is scheduled to be completed before Christmas.

http://www.fancampexplorationltd.ca/images/nr/2010/111210PR.pdf
 
We're waiting for drill results from this program.
 
Of note: (Cormark) purchased 4.9 mil shares today at .50. (crosstrade from BMO to Cormark)
 
Please visit the company website for further information.
 
http://www.fancampexplorationltd.ca/index.htm

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Full Metal Minerals - TA

FMM - Full Metal Minerals closed at .35 on above average volume.

Support is at .32, R at .38

Keep an eye on it because if it passes through .40 then I get a preliminary target of .63. On news the weekly chart shows this could do a $1.00 if news was good enough.

Full Metal Minerals - FMM.V, is focused in Alaska for gold and base metals. The management is the same as those who made the discovery for Underworld Resources which was acquired by Kinross. FMM has JV's with Kinross, BHP, New Gold, Freeport-McMoran, and many junior companies.

See my previous post on FMM made on January 5th.

http://tictalker.blogspot.com/2011/01/full-metal-minerals.html

Watchlist - Jan. 9

After doing a quick scan and then narrowing it down i've come up with 3 to watch for next week.

PIE-V - .83 - Primary Petroleum

This one's a Bakken oil play in Alberta, and is focussed on Oil & Gas in Montana.
the weekly chart is very overbought and recent high was .98. Watch for a move over .98 on the weekly for longer term holds, and over .85 for a sniper on daily charts.

Insiders have been buying - Pinetree Capital and Sheldon Inwentash.

http://www.canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=pie

CDV-TO - 2.45 - Com Dev International - had abnormal volume on Friday with small gain. This one is featured on Stockscores this week so watch for a move up tomorrow (unless markets tank) ComDev will have resistance at 2.60, and support is at 2.00. FWIW, I do like this company but historically they've had trouble hedging the C$ against contracts priced in US$. Maybe they'll get it right one of these days.

GPW.V  - .255 - Grand Power Logistics also has insider buying, no sells.

http://www.canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=gpw

On the weekly chart the stock had a huge volume candle. Resistance is at .40, but it did hit an intraday high of .50 in January of 2010.
Daily support is at .24.

A few thoughts

While browsing news, and different blogs I had a thought that I'd like to share. Everyone seems to be so focused on technical analysis, trading systems etc. that the forgotten art of choosing a stock based purely on fundamentsals seems to have been left to days "past", or those thinking like Warren Buffet. So, what is it that you know that others don't yet know?
That's the key, and one you should ask yourself with each trade, and investment. If you're using technical analysis then so is everyone else. What is it that makes your trade stand out from the rest. Do you sniper? only to watch it skyrocket after selling? Do you base your buys on TA, only to watch it languish for weeks on end?
I'm not saying I have the answers, but I do believe a combination of both, TA and FA are key to success. At this point in time, we need to take a step back and take a look at the "Big" picture. Where is the market heading? Where is the bottom for POG? Everyone is calling for a large pullback in gold...will it do that?
If everyone is thinking 1260 for gold, will it hit that?

I don't think so! there's 2 scenarios: imo

1. POG continues in an upward bias from current levels, since everyone things otherwise. As I look, this evening POG is at 1375

2. POG breaks down and hits 1260, but then continues on downward.

If it breaks down, bottom could even been under $1000...far more than any analyst or technical advisor is calling for. Why? Simply because it will go opposite of what everyone expects.

I've said this before, and I raise the point again. If everyone expects gold to breakdown from here, will it? Who's left to sell at this point, if those with foresight have already sold?

If POG expected bottom is 1260, will the downside continue once hit? I don't know, because those expecting that bottom will have already bought at 1280...so who's left to buy?

Just some of my own thoughts on Sunday, Jan. 09. Caution warranted.

Friday, January 7, 2011

Tech Talk for Friday January 7th 2011 | Timing The Market

Tech Talk for Friday January 7th 2011 Timing The Market

Medoro - Part 2

A blog, is a blog, is a blog. I made a post last night on Medoro and then had a discussion with TradingChief on the company. At the end of the post, I said "am I missing something"? Well, turns out the answer was a big YES.
I'll try to summarize as briefly as possible.
In March, 2010 they released a 265 page 43-101 report. It's huge!
http://www.medororesources.com/site/ywd_medororesources/assets/pdf/Marmato_Project__NI_43-101_Technical_Report_5_March_2010.pdf
  • They have to accept responsibility and liability for both creeks that are already polluted from previous mines
  • They're on the side of a very steep mountain and have to truck material to identified valley's for heap leach
  • $90 million cost just to clear the area of people
  • the land rights are composed of various claims (I think 275?) it's a nightmare reading through these
  • it's very low grade but large tonnage
  • heap leach uses tons of water
  • There's rights to different levels on a claim, which had to be almalgamated into 1 claim and there's 100's of them. (the claim is not just surface, but by depth)
There were more comments, but in a nutshell it's a very complicated project and warrants caution.
Technically, the chart looks like it could move up here, but with price of gold dropping I'd be careful with this one.

So there you have it. I've learned an important lesson through this exercise..things aren't always what they seem and will definitely take a bit more time to do a more thorough research.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Medoro

I just posted some comments on Medoro resources, and after some discussion with TradingChief, I removed it. On second thought, I'm reposting it here and will make a follow-up post to that.

After all, it is a blog! ;)

Medoro Resources

Medoro Resources - MRS.T, $2.31 close, released a new upgraded mineral resource estimate for their Marmato Project on Jan. 6, 2011. This is an open pit mine in Columbia.

Updated Mineral Resource Estimate Confirms Gold Resources of 6.6 Million Ounces Measured and Indicated and 3.2 Million Ounces Inferred at Marmato

Some key points. I've followed this one but don't currently own shares in the company. Heavy insider buying is what first drew my eye to this one, but that was a few months back and it appears Front Street Management has recently been selling.

http://www.canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=mrs

That being said, 2 days ago there was some insider buying.

Ok, the nitty gritty on this. The new estimate is 6.6 mil ozs gold measured & indicated, plus 3.2 mil oz. inferred. In addition to the gold, they have 37 mil oz silver measured & 22 mil inferred.

Since the cut off date for this report, they've drilled an additional 60 holes, and plan 237 in 2011. The key here, is they want to make the inferred resource, measured & indicated.

Current market capitalization is 326 million. Even if we discount this to $100 / oz taking into account operating costs etc. and only use measured 6.6 mil oz x $100 = $660 mil / 141 mil shares o/s gives me a valuation of $4.68
Am I missing something here???

Grade is low, and needs mill, and tailing pond, but it is an open pit mine which is less costly.

Technically, the stock hit a high of 2.88 in mid December and has pulled back to major resistance at 2.20. A breakout over 2.88 gives me a target of 3.90.

As always, do your own due diligence and visit the company website for more information.

http://www.medororesources.com/index.cfm?pagepath=Projects/Marmato_Project_Colombia&id=23274

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Full Metal Minerals

Full Metal Minerals - FMM.V, is focused in Alaska for gold and base metals. The management is the same as those who made the discovery for Underworld Resources which was acquired by Kinross. FMM has JV's with Kinross, BHP, New Gold, Freeport-McMoran, and many junior companies.

Warrants - 36,120,610, exercise price .25 - Expires, Dec. 19, 1010 - Jan. 30, 2011
Warrants - 5,995,000, exercise price .35 - Expires, July 11, 2011

Click here for corporate presentation

http://www.fullmetalminerals.com/i/pdf/CorporatePresentation.pdf

Map of extensive property locations, including Yukon properties.

http://www.fullmetalminerals.com/s/properties.asp

2 things that caught my eye. Insiders have been buying in this price range, with 1 sell.

http://www.canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=fmm

and the V.P. of Exploration is Rob McLeod, P.Geo.

From their website:

The majority of Mr. McLeod's exploration experience has been in Alaska, Yukon and Nunavut. As VP Exploration for Underworld Resources, he identified the potential of the White gold Property in the Yukon, and led the discovery team for the Golden Saddle Zone. Underworld was acquired by Kinross Gold in May 2010. As an exploration geologist and project manager at Miramar's Hope Bay project, he was part of the team that discovered the Naartok deposit, as well as expanding and delineating the Boston and Doris deposits. He was previously Vice President of Exploration for Atna Resources Ltd., a junior company exploring for gold in Nevada, and base metals in the Yukon. Mr. McLeod is currently a director for Keegan Resources, Revolution Resources, Silver Quest Resources and Gold Standard Ventures.

I don't currently have a position in this one but it's on my watchlist.

Visit the company website for more information.

http://www.fullmetalminerals.com/s/Home.asp

Microvision news

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/microvision-frees-mobile-gaming-from-the-small-screen-2011-01-05

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/microvision-demonstrates-mini-tablet-with-embedded-projector-2011-01-05

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Today's Movers

Ugly day for gold stocks, and most have abnormal volume to the downside. There's a few that are up on above average volume.

CUU-V - Copper fox minerals - up 6.9% on 2.4 mil shares - @ .93

ML-T - Mercator Minerals - up 2.02% on 1.6 mil shares - @ 4.05

RNX-T - Royal Nickel - up 4.87% on 809,000 shares - @ 2.80

UCU-T - Ucore Rare Metals - up 8.96% on 2.1 mil shares - @ .73

HAO-V - Habanero - up 11% on 445,700 shares - @ .095

GEM-V - Pelee Mountain - up 32% on 3.4 mil shares - @ .43 (113 mil shares o/s)

ORM-V - Oremex - up 16% on 1.69 mil shares - @ .29

Oremex Resources

Oremex Resources - ORM.V

This company caught my eye when they released news that Sprott Asset Management invested in the company through a private placement at .09.

http://www.oremex.com/News/LatestNews/NewsDetails/2010/Sprott-Asset-Management-Invests-In-Oremex1122754/default.aspx

The company is exploring and developing properties in Mexico. The most advanced project is Tejamin.
As outlined in a Wardrop Engineering Inc. Technical Report dated April 13, 2006, Tejamen has an Inferred mineral resource of 50.8 million ounces of silver in a total of 22.6 million tonnes grading a silver-equivalent of 69.8 grams per tonne (“gpt”).

According to an independent Preliminary Assessment Study conducted by Snowden Mining Industry Consultants Inc. (“Snowden”) (as announced in news release October 3, 2006), Tejamen, a potential open pit heap leach project, has an estimated net present value of US$97.4 million at US$12 per ounce silver and US$155.5 million at US$15 per ounce silver (at a 7% discount).

Current Market Cap is $20.5 million so I think this one has potential, considering the Tejamen project is one of seven - San Luca, Chalchihuites, Santa Catarina, El Sol, Maco, and Navidad.

Technically the stock made a substantial move after the Sprott investment news, but has now consolidated and closed at .25. Major Support exists at .22 (use for stop loss) and Resistance is .28 - .29. The weekly chart shows me this one could do .42 on a .29 breakout. Increased volume over .29 is key.
I've been accumulating from .12 up to .18.

The President and CEO, Mr. Smith is a geologist with significant mining operations experience both in the United States and internationally. Mr. Smith has served as Chief Mine Geologist for Barrick Gold Corp. at the Goldstrike Mine in Nevada. He subsequently became General Manager of Exploration and Development for Barrick Gold in South America. Mr. Smith has managed the design and operational aspects of engineering geology and has been involved in all aspects of ore reserve calculations, parameters and block modeling.
http://www.oremex.com/Corporate/Management/default.aspx

From their website:
With a 50.8 million ounce silver resource at its Tejamen Property and an experienced mine development team, Oremex Resources Inc. is an up and coming silver producer in Mexico. The Company is exploring and developing projects along the highly productive mineralized belt that has made Mexico one of the largest silver producers in the world. In addition to the Company's flagship Tejamen Silver Property, Oremex's portfolio of additional properties offers an opportunity for potential growth. Oremex Resources Inc. is a Canadian-based silver resource company listed on the TSX Venture Exchange (ORM) and the Frankfurt Exchange (OSI).

As always, please do your own due diligence and visit the company website for further information.

http://www.oremex.com/Home/default.aspx

Oremex Resources - abnormal trading

ok, this is very weird. I wrote up a blog for Oremex yesterday, and it's still sitting here in draft and not published. Low and behold the stock is up today on abnormal volume.

Just an odd coincidence I guess. Anyway, will publish the report now.

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