While browsing news, and different blogs I had a thought that I'd like to share. Everyone seems to be so focused on technical analysis, trading systems etc. that the forgotten art of choosing a stock based purely on fundamentsals seems to have been left to days "past", or those thinking like Warren Buffet. So, what is it that you know that others don't yet know?
That's the key, and one you should ask yourself with each trade, and investment. If you're using technical analysis then so is everyone else. What is it that makes your trade stand out from the rest. Do you sniper? only to watch it skyrocket after selling? Do you base your buys on TA, only to watch it languish for weeks on end?
I'm not saying I have the answers, but I do believe a combination of both, TA and FA are key to success. At this point in time, we need to take a step back and take a look at the "Big" picture. Where is the market heading? Where is the bottom for POG? Everyone is calling for a large pullback in gold...will it do that?
If everyone is thinking 1260 for gold, will it hit that?
I don't think so! there's 2 scenarios: imo
1. POG continues in an upward bias from current levels, since everyone things otherwise. As I look, this evening POG is at 1375
2. POG breaks down and hits 1260, but then continues on downward.
If it breaks down, bottom could even been under $1000...far more than any analyst or technical advisor is calling for. Why? Simply because it will go opposite of what everyone expects.
I've said this before, and I raise the point again. If everyone expects gold to breakdown from here, will it? Who's left to sell at this point, if those with foresight have already sold?
If POG expected bottom is 1260, will the downside continue once hit? I don't know, because those expecting that bottom will have already bought at 1280...so who's left to buy?
Just some of my own thoughts on Sunday, Jan. 09. Caution warranted.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Saturday, January 8, 2011
Friday, January 7, 2011
Medoro - Part 2
A blog, is a blog, is a blog. I made a post last night on Medoro and then had a discussion with TradingChief on the company. At the end of the post, I said "am I missing something"? Well, turns out the answer was a big YES.
I'll try to summarize as briefly as possible.
In March, 2010 they released a 265 page 43-101 report. It's huge!
http://www.medororesources.com/site/ywd_medororesources/assets/pdf/Marmato_Project__NI_43-101_Technical_Report_5_March_2010.pdf
Technically, the chart looks like it could move up here, but with price of gold dropping I'd be careful with this one.
So there you have it. I've learned an important lesson through this exercise..things aren't always what they seem and will definitely take a bit more time to do a more thorough research.
I'll try to summarize as briefly as possible.
In March, 2010 they released a 265 page 43-101 report. It's huge!
http://www.medororesources.com/site/ywd_medororesources/assets/pdf/Marmato_Project__NI_43-101_Technical_Report_5_March_2010.pdf
- They have to accept responsibility and liability for both creeks that are already polluted from previous mines
- They're on the side of a very steep mountain and have to truck material to identified valley's for heap leach
- $90 million cost just to clear the area of people
- the land rights are composed of various claims (I think 275?) it's a nightmare reading through these
- it's very low grade but large tonnage
- heap leach uses tons of water
- There's rights to different levels on a claim, which had to be almalgamated into 1 claim and there's 100's of them. (the claim is not just surface, but by depth)
Technically, the chart looks like it could move up here, but with price of gold dropping I'd be careful with this one.
So there you have it. I've learned an important lesson through this exercise..things aren't always what they seem and will definitely take a bit more time to do a more thorough research.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Medoro
I just posted some comments on Medoro resources, and after some discussion with TradingChief, I removed it. On second thought, I'm reposting it here and will make a follow-up post to that.
After all, it is a blog! ;)
After all, it is a blog! ;)
Medoro Resources
Medoro Resources - MRS.T, $2.31 close, released a new upgraded mineral resource estimate for their Marmato Project on Jan. 6, 2011. This is an open pit mine in Columbia.
Updated Mineral Resource Estimate Confirms Gold Resources of 6.6 Million Ounces Measured and Indicated and 3.2 Million Ounces Inferred at Marmato
Some key points. I've followed this one but don't currently own shares in the company. Heavy insider buying is what first drew my eye to this one, but that was a few months back and it appears Front Street Management has recently been selling.
http://www.canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=mrs
That being said, 2 days ago there was some insider buying.
Ok, the nitty gritty on this. The new estimate is 6.6 mil ozs gold measured & indicated, plus 3.2 mil oz. inferred. In addition to the gold, they have 37 mil oz silver measured & 22 mil inferred.
Since the cut off date for this report, they've drilled an additional 60 holes, and plan 237 in 2011. The key here, is they want to make the inferred resource, measured & indicated.
Current market capitalization is 326 million. Even if we discount this to $100 / oz taking into account operating costs etc. and only use measured 6.6 mil oz x $100 = $660 mil / 141 mil shares o/s gives me a valuation of $4.68
Am I missing something here???
Grade is low, and needs mill, and tailing pond, but it is an open pit mine which is less costly.
Technically, the stock hit a high of 2.88 in mid December and has pulled back to major resistance at 2.20. A breakout over 2.88 gives me a target of 3.90.
As always, do your own due diligence and visit the company website for more information.
http://www.medororesources.com/index.cfm?pagepath=Projects/Marmato_Project_Colombia&id=23274
Updated Mineral Resource Estimate Confirms Gold Resources of 6.6 Million Ounces Measured and Indicated and 3.2 Million Ounces Inferred at Marmato
Some key points. I've followed this one but don't currently own shares in the company. Heavy insider buying is what first drew my eye to this one, but that was a few months back and it appears Front Street Management has recently been selling.
http://www.canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=mrs
That being said, 2 days ago there was some insider buying.
Ok, the nitty gritty on this. The new estimate is 6.6 mil ozs gold measured & indicated, plus 3.2 mil oz. inferred. In addition to the gold, they have 37 mil oz silver measured & 22 mil inferred.
Since the cut off date for this report, they've drilled an additional 60 holes, and plan 237 in 2011. The key here, is they want to make the inferred resource, measured & indicated.
Current market capitalization is 326 million. Even if we discount this to $100 / oz taking into account operating costs etc. and only use measured 6.6 mil oz x $100 = $660 mil / 141 mil shares o/s gives me a valuation of $4.68
Am I missing something here???
Grade is low, and needs mill, and tailing pond, but it is an open pit mine which is less costly.
Technically, the stock hit a high of 2.88 in mid December and has pulled back to major resistance at 2.20. A breakout over 2.88 gives me a target of 3.90.
As always, do your own due diligence and visit the company website for more information.
http://www.medororesources.com/index.cfm?pagepath=Projects/Marmato_Project_Colombia&id=23274
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Full Metal Minerals
Full Metal Minerals - FMM.V, is focused in Alaska for gold and base metals. The management is the same as those who made the discovery for Underworld Resources which was acquired by Kinross. FMM has JV's with Kinross, BHP, New Gold, Freeport-McMoran, and many junior companies.
Warrants - 36,120,610, exercise price .25 - Expires, Dec. 19, 1010 - Jan. 30, 2011
Warrants - 5,995,000, exercise price .35 - Expires, July 11, 2011
Click here for corporate presentation
http://www.fullmetalminerals.com/i/pdf/CorporatePresentation.pdf
Map of extensive property locations, including Yukon properties.
http://www.fullmetalminerals.com/s/properties.asp
2 things that caught my eye. Insiders have been buying in this price range, with 1 sell.
http://www.canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=fmm
and the V.P. of Exploration is Rob McLeod, P.Geo.
From their website:
The majority of Mr. McLeod's exploration experience has been in Alaska, Yukon and Nunavut. As VP Exploration for Underworld Resources, he identified the potential of the White gold Property in the Yukon, and led the discovery team for the Golden Saddle Zone. Underworld was acquired by Kinross Gold in May 2010. As an exploration geologist and project manager at Miramar's Hope Bay project, he was part of the team that discovered the Naartok deposit, as well as expanding and delineating the Boston and Doris deposits. He was previously Vice President of Exploration for Atna Resources Ltd., a junior company exploring for gold in Nevada, and base metals in the Yukon. Mr. McLeod is currently a director for Keegan Resources, Revolution Resources, Silver Quest Resources and Gold Standard Ventures.
I don't currently have a position in this one but it's on my watchlist.
Visit the company website for more information.
http://www.fullmetalminerals.com/s/Home.asp
Warrants - 36,120,610, exercise price .25 - Expires, Dec. 19, 1010 - Jan. 30, 2011
Warrants - 5,995,000, exercise price .35 - Expires, July 11, 2011
Click here for corporate presentation
http://www.fullmetalminerals.com/i/pdf/CorporatePresentation.pdf
Map of extensive property locations, including Yukon properties.
http://www.fullmetalminerals.com/s/properties.asp
2 things that caught my eye. Insiders have been buying in this price range, with 1 sell.
http://www.canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=fmm
and the V.P. of Exploration is Rob McLeod, P.Geo.
From their website:
The majority of Mr. McLeod's exploration experience has been in Alaska, Yukon and Nunavut. As VP Exploration for Underworld Resources, he identified the potential of the White gold Property in the Yukon, and led the discovery team for the Golden Saddle Zone. Underworld was acquired by Kinross Gold in May 2010. As an exploration geologist and project manager at Miramar's Hope Bay project, he was part of the team that discovered the Naartok deposit, as well as expanding and delineating the Boston and Doris deposits. He was previously Vice President of Exploration for Atna Resources Ltd., a junior company exploring for gold in Nevada, and base metals in the Yukon. Mr. McLeod is currently a director for Keegan Resources, Revolution Resources, Silver Quest Resources and Gold Standard Ventures.
I don't currently have a position in this one but it's on my watchlist.
Visit the company website for more information.
http://www.fullmetalminerals.com/s/Home.asp
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