ARZ.T - Aurizon -
They have $208 mil in cash and no debt. The company has been profitable, even
with the rising costs in labour and hydro. There's also room for speculative
drilling, and they have good results. (NOX.V is in a JV with ARZ, so if you're
looking for a penny stock it might be worth watching. They have good drill
results)
IMG-T - Iamgold
NGD-T - New Gold
I'd like to say
SGR.T but it's not been peforming well at all. Of course, it might be
a decent bottom fish.
Recent Article in the Globe
Gold Miners with
Bullion brawn
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/number-cruncher/g
old-miners-with-bullion-brawn/article4470435/
Mentions from Globeinvestor
- YRI.T, SMF.T, SGR.T, P.T, NGD.T, LSG.T, LMA.T, KGI.T, K.T, IMG.T
Of
those, I like YRI, SMF, SGR, NGD, and IMG
Not familiar with LMA or KGI.
Kinross seems to have multiple problems, P - Primero is worth studying. LSG has
high costs (imo)
If you're looking for a "penny" producer, and explorer I
think BRD.T is worth a shot. This is Brigus Gold, and is a combination of Apollo
Gold and Linear Gold. It's a producer, explorer.
Saturday, August 18, 2012
Smoke Signal part 2 - Charts
http://tradingchief.com/
This is the second, go back one post, that is the start of this weeks rant.
This is the second, go back one post, that is the start of this weeks rant.
Chief's Smoke Signal - A Must read!
http://tradingchief.com/
What occurred Thurs/Fri on the TSX was not actually supposed to happen till Monday. This is the run to the September selling that will take place when the "Go away in May" people come back. So we should have a decent run up by the end of August. It was scheduled to commence the 15th but we did not think it would start this quickly.
During this cycle Gold and silver will become more of a leader. Gold/silver stocks should reap some benefits but not at the magnitude they should. So they may be good for flips but not holds again.
Baltic Dry Index
As you know we sort of laughed at the pundits who decided that the BDI no longer counted because of the many larger ships being delivered that was skewing the BDI.
Our position has always been that the BDI which is composed of the three ship composite charts. Has always been a perfect indicator. What was seen as an overage in tnakers in one category, should have been compensated by a lessor amount of ships in a lessor category. So for instance. If the Supramax was delivered and there was no work for it, then it was mothballed. Thereby not impacting the category at all. Many sugggested that the larger numbers would force day rates down and skewing the BDI. We suggested that no one commissions a Supramax and then loses money with it. They mothball it and wait for proces to rise, keeping the other tankers they have, employed and getting a reasonable day rate.
Now add to this, trillions of QE, or Gov assistance around the world creating false demand and you would think the day rates would have at least stabilized. Well they haven't, which supported our theory of a "rigged BDI" from the getgo. It was done with LIBOR why not BDI? As soon as they realized all the rigging in the world would not save the index, they then dismissed it as an irrelevant indicator. The trouble is, they could not hide the fact that the Panamax, the Supramax and the Capesize were all falling anyway, so dismissing the value of BDI did nothing except raise our suspicions that they were struggling trying to get people not to realize what was/is happening.
So lets take a look at BDI and see if our call that this indicator is still the best one to follow no matter what. In fact one of the inputs to our call of a lousy 2013 is the BDI. If we were wrong on that call, the weighting of BDI would make our call wrong.
So we have 3 composites that create the value of BDI. One is the Capesize chart, the others are Panamax Handysize and Supramax.
So lets look at the BDI Chart first.
Lousy isn't it? Its literally 50 points away from being at the lows of the crisis in 2008? Of course the pundits/analysts say, well thats because of the Supramax weighing it down!! Really? lets look at Supramax and see.
By golly they are right!! So we must be wrong. Its all a figment of our active imagination then? Well wait one? Lets look at the other 2 indexes that obviously are SMOKIN and being burdened by the Suprmax chart!!!
Whats this? How can this be? Capesize Handymax and Panamax are also approaching 2008 lows? How can this possibly be, if the story of BDI was true? Surely we would have seen some sort of offset on the obvious huge pent up demand that the analysts suggested was there and would be there through the year and years to come?
Look at the charts and look when the failures actually occurred. We started to climb out of the dive in 2008 when TARP/QE 1 occurred. Then when those burnt out, they retraced, only to be supported by the next round of QE and Gov assistance around the world. Note how, over the last 6 months as people have been waiting for Artificial stimulus 3 to occur, the prices per day have absolutely been decimated? As China decided to slow its economy, it has killed the charts within the BDI. Now, would the impact have been as great if Europe and the US were doing OK? No it would not have been! So where is global trade going? Well below the 2008 lows as far as we are concerned, unless, someone decides to spend a shitload of taxpayer money once again to create artificial demand!
In the past spending created the necessary results so people like Bernanke assumed that it would obviously work again. The difference this time is "debt". You can only afford to spend so much before you hope things will carry on, "on their own". However, no one country was willing to go beyond that point and force the cycle into a self sustainable position. Why? debt! As the US spent trillions creating a false economy, they were doing so at a time where the global economy was shrinking (that was dumb and we said so!). By not allowing a controlled recession to last as long as it needed too. The US (which got us in this mess in the first place) either felt some sort of obligation to restore the economy prematurely, or, "could not afford for a prolonged recession to occur because of debt". We think its the latter.
So, Ben and the many other sound minds of the banking world decided to short cut a natural cycle and now what they have created is a small disaster waiting to happen.
Through all of this I now find myself becoming an American basher! Why? Surely there are enough smart people in America to realize that this is destined for failure and talking about "change" is as useless as not doing any? But, I appear to be wrong? I thought American society would rise up against these people and toss them! I was wrong, not only did they not toss them, they left the banks in the hands of the criminals that screwed the world in the first place.
Americans have a rather famous way of rewriting history so they always look like the hero's. You see it in TV movies on a regular basis, now its creeping over to the now of present day society. There are still people that state emphatically that sub prime was just one of the catalysts for the crisis and there was many others. Thats true, but all these instruments (sub prime, CDS, etc) were created by the American Banks and brokerages. So its like having a gun, and passing out 9 more and teaching the rest of the people that shooting anything that moves is the right thing to do. Then when everyone but the 10 are dead, saying that you only killed a few and the other 9 are equally responsible?
Thats true, but Americans still will not admit they handed out the guns and told all the other 9 that "their only option was to shoot anything that moved" and if they did, they would make BIG money.
Yes that means there are 9 other stupid people in the world but in the financial industries, mention the word "BIG money" and the stupid people line up for miles, and the Americans knew they would!
Somehow Americans no longer think that the small Norwegian Town that is now bankrupt has anything to do with them? It was the "system". What they continually deny is they created the "system" that did this, and have now shown they do not "have the spine" to force the changes necessary.
So the DOJ walks away from GS prosecution. The SEC picks token "black" people to fry for insider trading. The SEC lays out fines for criminal, not for misleading practices, but CRIMINAL practices and then allows everyone to reset their clocks and start all over again. Then 2 years later re-fines the same criminals doing the same thing. The US government, believes the machine is to big to correct so they just ignore it. So politicians continue to be bribed and told that nothing can change, and they accept that.
They determine as part of lessons learned that "two big to fail" is bad for the US economy, then authorizes the 10 biggest banks in the US to become 3 times bigger then when the financial collapse occurred? So how does one rationalize this other then to say we are living next door to a bunch of farkin idiots?
To cover up terrible balance sheets, they do away with the only rule that could have kept the banks in line, and that was FASB's "Mark to Market". So the 10 largest banks have the greatest amount of debt that is totally unrecorded on their balance sheet, with the approval of the government. The US citizen does nothing! Absolutely nothing.
So as we proceed with technology, the need to defend the US from enemies from within and around the world is being redefined. Enemies within, depend where they are and who they are, more so now then it ever did. The rule is now, fine those within, and use a wavejet with a cruise missile for those outside the US.
Where we were desperately wrong was assuming Americans had balls? They really don't. They talk big, walk big, and yell loud, but when it comes down to cleaning out their own backyard, well someone else should do that, not me is the attitude.
So why am I so pissed now? Plain and Simple the idiots are dragging us down to the sewer they have created and their is absolutely nothing we can do about it.
So you create this perception that everything is fine, by manipulating every number set that is available. If the DOW starts to drop, no problem, just toss the offending stock and bring in a new one, and ramp it up. Where GM goes so Goes America? No problem, have them "Channel stuff" so they can get their numbers up to make it appear everything is okay, and by the time people realize it was channel stuffing we will be on our way to recovery! er Wrong! Move ships with Copper from the LME to China making it look like they are increasing demand when in fact the ship is being rerouted to Brazil, which is already consuming at a low, but is not in the spotlight so the con works! Try to preserve Natural Gas consumption by forcing shut-ins, and juggling the storage numbers, until the lie can no longer be covered up and NG falls off a cliff.
Take POO and route as much out of the country as possible increasing your exports by 200% to cover up the lack of domestic consumption. So when you are down 500K blls and the analysts predicted down 100K it looks like consumption is rising in the US when in fact the US discounted 400K bbls overseas or just moved one more vessel offshore with a belly full and anchored it!
All this is good stuff, at the start of any recovery. But, when you get to the point that is blatantly discernible that things are not going right, you are supposed to drift back to honesty and integrity. Which means, you fib/lie on production or consumption to instill confidence. Once restored you own up to the fib. The trouble is, confidence was not restored, production and demand did not come back (albeit for TARP/QE etc) and they continue to lie. So when the shit does hit the fan. It will be far worse then what should have occurred. Because, suddenly and very soon, someone is going to have to tell the truth. We think 2013 is ripe for it.
In the meantime, wall street will still try to ramp up both markets into September in the hopes of unloading as much over inflated crap on the "go away in May" crowd. If Ben were to time some QE for that period Sept1-15 then we could see our 14K without an issue. In fact we are only 750 points from it now, so although that looked like an outrageous call at the start of this year, were almost there. We just think once beyond this leg, the lies start to be exposed for what they are and reality sets in with a thud!
So the next 2 weeks should be good for the TSX and DOW using that logic. So play! We just would have rather seen these last 2 updays on the TSX occurring next week, so that pop value has to be subtracted from our 2 week target of 12532 so we should hit 12410 or so. If the US tries to jam us to 14K soon, then 12532 can be hit. If Gold continues the run we now expect to $1800 then we might get a little crazy and see 12836
Confidence in "Merica" and heavy flag waving will take place from Sept1 right up to the November elections. The only way to kill that heavy flag waving and surge of "Merican pride" is to have Ben do nothing..... so we watch.
Next message contains TSX/DOW charts as we can only upload 5 charts per post. The new saying is "Whereth Apple Goes so goeth America" Why? Well they have inflated Apples weighting to drive the market higher. Lord help us the day people have to choose between an ipad and food. If things persist, we are not far away from that period in history.
What occurred Thurs/Fri on the TSX was not actually supposed to happen till Monday. This is the run to the September selling that will take place when the "Go away in May" people come back. So we should have a decent run up by the end of August. It was scheduled to commence the 15th but we did not think it would start this quickly.
During this cycle Gold and silver will become more of a leader. Gold/silver stocks should reap some benefits but not at the magnitude they should. So they may be good for flips but not holds again.
Baltic Dry Index
As you know we sort of laughed at the pundits who decided that the BDI no longer counted because of the many larger ships being delivered that was skewing the BDI.
Our position has always been that the BDI which is composed of the three ship composite charts. Has always been a perfect indicator. What was seen as an overage in tnakers in one category, should have been compensated by a lessor amount of ships in a lessor category. So for instance. If the Supramax was delivered and there was no work for it, then it was mothballed. Thereby not impacting the category at all. Many sugggested that the larger numbers would force day rates down and skewing the BDI. We suggested that no one commissions a Supramax and then loses money with it. They mothball it and wait for proces to rise, keeping the other tankers they have, employed and getting a reasonable day rate.
Now add to this, trillions of QE, or Gov assistance around the world creating false demand and you would think the day rates would have at least stabilized. Well they haven't, which supported our theory of a "rigged BDI" from the getgo. It was done with LIBOR why not BDI? As soon as they realized all the rigging in the world would not save the index, they then dismissed it as an irrelevant indicator. The trouble is, they could not hide the fact that the Panamax, the Supramax and the Capesize were all falling anyway, so dismissing the value of BDI did nothing except raise our suspicions that they were struggling trying to get people not to realize what was/is happening.
So lets take a look at BDI and see if our call that this indicator is still the best one to follow no matter what. In fact one of the inputs to our call of a lousy 2013 is the BDI. If we were wrong on that call, the weighting of BDI would make our call wrong.
So we have 3 composites that create the value of BDI. One is the Capesize chart, the others are Panamax Handysize and Supramax.
So lets look at the BDI Chart first.
Lousy isn't it? Its literally 50 points away from being at the lows of the crisis in 2008? Of course the pundits/analysts say, well thats because of the Supramax weighing it down!! Really? lets look at Supramax and see.
By golly they are right!! So we must be wrong. Its all a figment of our active imagination then? Well wait one? Lets look at the other 2 indexes that obviously are SMOKIN and being burdened by the Suprmax chart!!!
Whats this? How can this be? Capesize Handymax and Panamax are also approaching 2008 lows? How can this possibly be, if the story of BDI was true? Surely we would have seen some sort of offset on the obvious huge pent up demand that the analysts suggested was there and would be there through the year and years to come?
Look at the charts and look when the failures actually occurred. We started to climb out of the dive in 2008 when TARP/QE 1 occurred. Then when those burnt out, they retraced, only to be supported by the next round of QE and Gov assistance around the world. Note how, over the last 6 months as people have been waiting for Artificial stimulus 3 to occur, the prices per day have absolutely been decimated? As China decided to slow its economy, it has killed the charts within the BDI. Now, would the impact have been as great if Europe and the US were doing OK? No it would not have been! So where is global trade going? Well below the 2008 lows as far as we are concerned, unless, someone decides to spend a shitload of taxpayer money once again to create artificial demand!
In the past spending created the necessary results so people like Bernanke assumed that it would obviously work again. The difference this time is "debt". You can only afford to spend so much before you hope things will carry on, "on their own". However, no one country was willing to go beyond that point and force the cycle into a self sustainable position. Why? debt! As the US spent trillions creating a false economy, they were doing so at a time where the global economy was shrinking (that was dumb and we said so!). By not allowing a controlled recession to last as long as it needed too. The US (which got us in this mess in the first place) either felt some sort of obligation to restore the economy prematurely, or, "could not afford for a prolonged recession to occur because of debt". We think its the latter.
So, Ben and the many other sound minds of the banking world decided to short cut a natural cycle and now what they have created is a small disaster waiting to happen.
Through all of this I now find myself becoming an American basher! Why? Surely there are enough smart people in America to realize that this is destined for failure and talking about "change" is as useless as not doing any? But, I appear to be wrong? I thought American society would rise up against these people and toss them! I was wrong, not only did they not toss them, they left the banks in the hands of the criminals that screwed the world in the first place.
Americans have a rather famous way of rewriting history so they always look like the hero's. You see it in TV movies on a regular basis, now its creeping over to the now of present day society. There are still people that state emphatically that sub prime was just one of the catalysts for the crisis and there was many others. Thats true, but all these instruments (sub prime, CDS, etc) were created by the American Banks and brokerages. So its like having a gun, and passing out 9 more and teaching the rest of the people that shooting anything that moves is the right thing to do. Then when everyone but the 10 are dead, saying that you only killed a few and the other 9 are equally responsible?
Thats true, but Americans still will not admit they handed out the guns and told all the other 9 that "their only option was to shoot anything that moved" and if they did, they would make BIG money.
Yes that means there are 9 other stupid people in the world but in the financial industries, mention the word "BIG money" and the stupid people line up for miles, and the Americans knew they would!
Somehow Americans no longer think that the small Norwegian Town that is now bankrupt has anything to do with them? It was the "system". What they continually deny is they created the "system" that did this, and have now shown they do not "have the spine" to force the changes necessary.
So the DOJ walks away from GS prosecution. The SEC picks token "black" people to fry for insider trading. The SEC lays out fines for criminal, not for misleading practices, but CRIMINAL practices and then allows everyone to reset their clocks and start all over again. Then 2 years later re-fines the same criminals doing the same thing. The US government, believes the machine is to big to correct so they just ignore it. So politicians continue to be bribed and told that nothing can change, and they accept that.
They determine as part of lessons learned that "two big to fail" is bad for the US economy, then authorizes the 10 biggest banks in the US to become 3 times bigger then when the financial collapse occurred? So how does one rationalize this other then to say we are living next door to a bunch of farkin idiots?
To cover up terrible balance sheets, they do away with the only rule that could have kept the banks in line, and that was FASB's "Mark to Market". So the 10 largest banks have the greatest amount of debt that is totally unrecorded on their balance sheet, with the approval of the government. The US citizen does nothing! Absolutely nothing.
So as we proceed with technology, the need to defend the US from enemies from within and around the world is being redefined. Enemies within, depend where they are and who they are, more so now then it ever did. The rule is now, fine those within, and use a wavejet with a cruise missile for those outside the US.
Where we were desperately wrong was assuming Americans had balls? They really don't. They talk big, walk big, and yell loud, but when it comes down to cleaning out their own backyard, well someone else should do that, not me is the attitude.
So why am I so pissed now? Plain and Simple the idiots are dragging us down to the sewer they have created and their is absolutely nothing we can do about it.
So you create this perception that everything is fine, by manipulating every number set that is available. If the DOW starts to drop, no problem, just toss the offending stock and bring in a new one, and ramp it up. Where GM goes so Goes America? No problem, have them "Channel stuff" so they can get their numbers up to make it appear everything is okay, and by the time people realize it was channel stuffing we will be on our way to recovery! er Wrong! Move ships with Copper from the LME to China making it look like they are increasing demand when in fact the ship is being rerouted to Brazil, which is already consuming at a low, but is not in the spotlight so the con works! Try to preserve Natural Gas consumption by forcing shut-ins, and juggling the storage numbers, until the lie can no longer be covered up and NG falls off a cliff.
Take POO and route as much out of the country as possible increasing your exports by 200% to cover up the lack of domestic consumption. So when you are down 500K blls and the analysts predicted down 100K it looks like consumption is rising in the US when in fact the US discounted 400K bbls overseas or just moved one more vessel offshore with a belly full and anchored it!
All this is good stuff, at the start of any recovery. But, when you get to the point that is blatantly discernible that things are not going right, you are supposed to drift back to honesty and integrity. Which means, you fib/lie on production or consumption to instill confidence. Once restored you own up to the fib. The trouble is, confidence was not restored, production and demand did not come back (albeit for TARP/QE etc) and they continue to lie. So when the shit does hit the fan. It will be far worse then what should have occurred. Because, suddenly and very soon, someone is going to have to tell the truth. We think 2013 is ripe for it.
In the meantime, wall street will still try to ramp up both markets into September in the hopes of unloading as much over inflated crap on the "go away in May" crowd. If Ben were to time some QE for that period Sept1-15 then we could see our 14K without an issue. In fact we are only 750 points from it now, so although that looked like an outrageous call at the start of this year, were almost there. We just think once beyond this leg, the lies start to be exposed for what they are and reality sets in with a thud!
So the next 2 weeks should be good for the TSX and DOW using that logic. So play! We just would have rather seen these last 2 updays on the TSX occurring next week, so that pop value has to be subtracted from our 2 week target of 12532 so we should hit 12410 or so. If the US tries to jam us to 14K soon, then 12532 can be hit. If Gold continues the run we now expect to $1800 then we might get a little crazy and see 12836
Confidence in "Merica" and heavy flag waving will take place from Sept1 right up to the November elections. The only way to kill that heavy flag waving and surge of "Merican pride" is to have Ben do nothing..... so we watch.
Next message contains TSX/DOW charts as we can only upload 5 charts per post. The new saying is "Whereth Apple Goes so goeth America" Why? Well they have inflated Apples weighting to drive the market higher. Lord help us the day people have to choose between an ipad and food. If things persist, we are not far away from that period in history.
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